Yankees open key set with Rays; A-Rod tries again for 600th homer

Baseball Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Rodriguez's quest to become the youngest player in baseball history with 600 home runs takes him to St. Petersburg where the New York Yankees open a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field.

Rodriguez remained stuck at 599 on Thursday, but drove in three runs while both Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson added two RBI in the Yankees' 11-4 win over Cleveland. Robinson Cano homered and Francisco Cervelli also drove in a run for the Yankees, who took three of four in the set at Progressive Field and have won 17 of 22 overall.

The Yankees enter this series with a two-game lead on the Rays in the American League East.

"We're playing good baseball, winning baseball," said Rodriguez, who will become the seventh player to reach the milestone. "The thing to remember is that when I hit (my 600th home run), nothing is going to change. We're just trying to play good baseball."

Rodriguez, who was 3-for-17 in the series with the Indians, should still easily become the youngest player to reach the milestone. Babe Ruth hit his 600th at age 36, while Rodriguez turned 35 on Tuesday.

Ruth may have reached the milestone quicker, hitting No. 600 in his 6,921st at-bat, but Rodriguez's pace (8,671 at-bats entering play Friday) trails only that of Barry Bonds (8,212) and eclipses Willie Mays (9,514) and Henry Aaron (10,009).

However, his 30 at-bats between home runs is the longest drought between homers 599 and 600 of the six other members in the club.

Taking the ball for New York in the opener tonight will be righty Phil Hughes, who has won two of his last three starts. Hughes improved to 12-3 on Sunday against Kansas City, as he allowed three runs and six hits in 5 1/3 innings.

Hughes, though, has given up 15 runs in his four July starts and has seen his earned run average balloon to 4.04.

He is 2-1 in seven games (two starts) against the Rays with a 4.20 ERA.

Tampa, meanwhile, has won six in a row after a three-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers that culminated with a 4-2 win on Thursday. Carlos Pena went 3-for-4 with a home run and drove in all of Tampa Bay's runs, while David Price picked up his AL-best 14th victory after limiting the Tigers to two runs in 6 1/3 innings.

Price allowed seven hits, walked two and struck out nine for the Rays and matched the team record for victories in a season, shared by James Shields (2008), Edwin Jackson (2008) and Rolando Arrojo (1998).

"He's having a tremendous year," Rays third baseman Evan Longoria said. "He's pitched about as good as anybody has this year in the major leagues. He's been consistent for the most part all year. He's been a guy we can lean on when we need a stop or when we need a win. That's huge."

Tampa has won 19 of its 25 games since June 30 and is a season-best 25 games over .500. At the 100-game mark, the club is eight games ahead of last season and three ahead of its 2008 pace when it captured the American League pennant.

Going for Tampa tonight will be 25-year-old righty Wade Davis, who is 8-9 with a 4.32 ERA. Davis won his third straight start on Sunday in Cleveland, holding the Indians to a pair of runs and seven hits in 6 1/3 innings.

Davis, who has given up one home run in three at-bats to A-Rod, beat the Yankees back on May 19 and is 1-2 in three starts against them with a 4.86 ERA.

These teams have split their eight matchups this season.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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