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07/27/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Can you believe that the FedEx Cup Playoffs begin four weeks from Thursday?
You probably can - you understand time at this point in your life - but the regular season in golf is almost over. Do we have a legitimate Player of the Year at this point?
No folks, we do not.
We can pare the list down to six, but the bigger story is that none of those six is named after a cartoon flake pitchman.
Tiger Woods won Player of the Year in a vote of his peers 10 times. Since 1997, three guys other than Tiger have won this award. In average years, Woods still brings home the hardware.
Now he's nowhere on the radar. Amazing what one accident that's never been fully explained can do. Woods hasn't won all year and truthfully, never threatened the top of the leaderboard. His best finishes are two fourth-place ties and they were at majors. His top-fives in majors notwithstanding, Woods doesn't belong in this race.
Of course, he could get into it very quickly.
Woods has the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational on tap in a few weeks and he's only won that seven times. The PGA Championship is the week after and Woods has enjoyed small doses of success in major championships.
So who does that leave?
Obviously major champions belong in the conversation, but two won't be a part of ours. Masters winner Phil Mickelson will be.
U.S. Open winner Graeme McDowell stated at the British Open that he would join the PGA Tour for the remainder of 2010. Even if we took into account his PGA Tour work as a non-member this year, he tied for sixth at the WGC-CA Championship and didn't finish inside the top 25 in five other starts in the U.S.
British Open champion Louis Oosthuizen was amazing in his epic win at St. Andrews, but he's not a member of the PGA Tour, so you could just as easily vote for Nicklaus, Palmer, Popeye, me or your uncle Hal.
The other choices are two-time winners this year on tour. That group is Ernie Els, Jim Furyk, Steve Stricker and Justin Rose.
We are going to bounce Furyk and Stricker. Furyk won twice early in the season, but missed the cut in two majors and his only top 10 since mid-April was a tie for 10th at the Memorial.
It's a shame Stricker gets bounced from consideration, but he hurt his shoulder around the Masters and missed almost two months. That kind of time off hurts your overall score.
Rose is an interesting case. He's probably the hottest player in golf right now, with two wins since June, but he wasn't qualified for the Masters or U.S. Open, so I have a hard time giving Player of the 3/4 Year to a guy whose early season didn't get him into the first two majors.
Els won back-to-back starts at the CA-Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational and has a tie for 18th at Augusta. He should've won his third U.S. Open and he missed the cut at St. Andrews.
The Big Easy has made it look easy at times in 2010. Els has six top 10s on tour this year, nine top-25s and is the leader on the FedEx Cup points list.
But this vote goes to Mickelson.
Lefty won a major, so that right there gets him an extra nod. Mickelson, like Els, had a great chance at the U.S. Open, but Pebble Beach swallowed him up on Sunday.
Mickelson has missed only one cut on tour this year to Els' three, and Els' have all come in his last five starts. Els' two wins came before the calendar turned to April, but he does have a strong case.
Just not as strong as Mickelson's.
On top of the Masters win, Mickelson was the runner-up at Quail Hollow, and top five in both the U.S. Open and Memorial. But when it comes down to it, the difference is that major title.
Professional golf is defined by major championships, and always has been. A Masters victory is just as good as two very quality PGA Tour victories. With records being equal, a major is worth two tour wins and that's why the Player of the 3/4 Year is Phil Mickelson.
Subject to change in the next four weeks.
RANDOM THOUGHTS
- In case you were wondering, and you probably weren't, the reason for my column this week is that I'm on vacation next week.
- Cell phones will be allowed at the Wyndham Championship, as long as they are on silent. This won't go well.
- As I tweeted earlier in the week, Corey Pavin is meeting with Tiger at the PGA Championship about his interest in the Ryder Cup. My statement if I was Pavin would be this, "Love to have ya, bro, but if not, oh well." It's proven the Americans can win without him and if he doesn't want to be here, the message should be get yourself together and we'll see you in 2012. I've always believed that it's foolish to think a team would be better without Woods, but no sense in him coming to Wales without the right attitude.
- Movie moment - Caught a movie called "The Invention of Lying." It's written, directed by and starring Ricky Gervais, who I would laugh at even if he was reading my obituary, but this didn't work. It's a new classification of movie we'll call, "Great concept, flawed execution."
<< Kings bring in LW Ponikarovsky
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Kings have agreed to terms
with left wing Alexei Ponikarovsky on a contract for the next season.
Ponikarovsky had spent his entire NHL career with the Maple Leafs before being
dealt to Pit
<< Former Dolphin Galbreath dead at 45
Davie, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former Miami Dolphins offensive lineman Harry
Galbreath died Tuesday of an apparent heart ailment. He was just 45 years old.
The Dolphins organization issued a release Tuesday saying Galbreath had been
work
<< Schiavone wins Istanbul opener
Istanbul, Turkey (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It took two days, but French Open
champion Francesca Schiavone finally posted a first-round victory at the
$220,000 Istanbul Cup hardcourt tennis event.
The top-seeded Schiavone was leadin
<< Ortiz, Greisen and Moye-Moore earn weekly AFL honors
Tulsa, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tampa Bay linebacker ERIC ORTIZ,
Milwaukee quarterback CHRIS GREISEN and Orlando linebacker
MARLON MOYE-MOORE have been named the JLS Ironman, Russell
Athletic Offensive Players and Riddell Defensive Player of
the
Giants S Jones released from hospital >>
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Giants rookie safety Chad
Jones was released from the Hospital for Special Surgery Tuesday after
spending nearly a month there following a serious car accident last month.
Jones is
Petzschner, Stakhovsky fall in Umag >>
Umag, Croatia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seeded players Philipp Petzschner and
Sergiy Stakhovsky were a pair of first-round upset victims Tuesday at the
clay-court Croatia Open.
Belgian Olivier Rochus, a runner-up on the grass in Newport two week
EverBank, Jaguars agree to naming rights pact for stadium >>
Jacksonville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - EverBank and the Jacksonville Jaguars
announced a five-year agreement Tuesday for the naming rights to the team's
stadium.
EverBank Field will replace the moniker of Jacksonville Municipal Stad
Bucs ink rookie WR Benn to four-year deal >>
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Buccaneers came to terms with
rookie wide receiver Arrelious Benn on a four-year contract on Tuesday.
Financial details were not disclosed.
Benn was selected in the second round -- 39th ov
“You play to win the game!”
Those are the words of notoriously intense head coach Herman Edwards. Unfortunately, from a bettors’ perspective, most coaches don’t feel that way about the NFL preseason. August is a time to evaluate young players, finalize the depth chart and pray your star players stay healthy.
The trick to making money during the exhibition schedule is identifying coaches – like Edwards – who can’t stand losing even when there's nothing on the line.
The New York Jets betting won 15 of 21 preseason games and went 14-7 against the spread (ATS) during Edwards’s five-year tenure with the club. In his first season as the Kansas City Chiefs field boss, the team improved from 0-4 to 2-2.
Identifying win-a-holics like Edwards is a good start if you plan betting the preseason – even though most say you shouldn’t ... but what the hell do they know anyway?
Here’s a brief rundown of two teams that have a habit of winning during the second-stringers’ season, and another club that has a good chance of exceeding this year.
Playing in the media hub of North America can be stressful but the press can’t write anything negative about the way Tom Coughlin’s boys play in the preseason. The Giants won and covered all four games last summer, improving their record to 7-1 both straight up (SU) and against the spread over the last two years.
Coughlin has shown he’s not afraid to give his starters more time in the second preseason game than most of his colleagues, no doubt one of the reasons his team has been so dominant.
Bettors can count on America’s team early on. The Cowboys are 14-6 both SU and ATS since 2002 in warm-up contests. Former coach Bill Parcells, the coach of the team the last four years, has an intimidating, in-your-face presence – surely a reason Dallas has had so much early success.
The Big Tuna won’t be strolling the sidelines with looks of disgust, but new coach Wade Phillips will be anxious to make a good first impression for owner Jerry Jones.
Dallas plays the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos before things get serious. They then face the Houston Texans in their third contest (the game starters see most game time) and finish off with the Minnesota Vikings.
Expect a Dallas team able to walk away with another 3-1 preseason record.
This team scored a league-worst 12 offensive touchdowns last season, so the rookies and veterans each have something to prove. There’s a bounty of first-unit jobs up for grabs and plenty of bodies competing for those slots.
First-time head coach Lane Kiffin will be eager to impress an owner who employs the philosophy, “Just win, baby!”
The 32-year-old Kiffin has to command respect from a locker room full of players older than him. All of these factors should lead to purpose in preseason.
Don’t forget: before playing like a team that belonged in NFL Europe, Oakland went 4-1 (both SU and ATS) in exhibition games.
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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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